If the phrase “cautiously optimistic” had a face, it might look like Alastair Hayfield. Hayfield, video surveillance and CGA Group research manager for U.K.-based
IMS Research, isn’t predicting great things for 2010 “but certainly towards the latter half — it will be a better year than 2009.
“In general, we’re forecasting a pick-up for video surveillance. Probably slightly longer for access control and intruder alarms.”
SP&T News recently asked Hayfield to reflect on 2009 and provide some predictions for 2010. If he’s right, this could be the year that smaller manufacturers make a bigger impact.
SP&T News: Now that 2009 is over, can you gauge what kind of impact the recession has had on the security market?
Alastair Hayfield: Obviously, business has been down across the board throughout 2009. Growth rates have either been flat or not much above zero. I guess the positive side is that we’ve seen more partnerships between companies, either on a strategic footing or a technology footing. That’s kind of good news for the industry, because that means that end users and systems installers and integrators are able to get better products and innovative technologies. That’s a good thing that’s come out of the recession — companies have been forced to co-operate a bit more. There’s probably a bit more realism that’s crept into the market. There’s less hype around things like analytics or the claims surrounding particular verticals.
SP&T News: Is there a particular market that performed well in 2009?
Hayfield: In terms of the overall security market, video remains the strongest performer. All the spending on homeland security and the transition to IP has actually kept the growth in the market reasonably strong. In general, access control and intruder alarms tend to be more based around GDP growth. Industries that were hit by the recession, such as construction, etc., tended to have a knock-on effect (on the security market). Obviously there aren’t as many opportunities for new intruder alarms or access control installations.
SP&T News: Is analogue going to continue to hang on in the face of IP?
Hayfield: It depends on the country you look at and it depends on the vertical as well. For countries for where there isn’t much legacy analogue and it’s mostly Greenfield projects, you can see them adopting IP. For countries like the U.K., where we’ve got a vast legacy analogue market, it’s probably a little bit slower to go towards IP. The same is true for verticals as well. If we take retail as an example, it’s quite price conscious. For (smaller stores), it’s certainly cheaper for them to go with analogue. In general, we’re still seeing a very strong trend towards IP, but I think it’s going to take several more years before we see the tipping point in the market. I think that network solutions are probably still a little bit too expensive for some of the more price-sensitive markets. You also have to look at the major manufacturers. You still have to bring out new DVRs — there’re still bringing out new analogue cameras. Those guys are still making the investment in their analogue products.
